While it looks like The Sims Social may have lost its chance to pull ahead of Zynga's CityVille in traffic during 2011, the game could potentially be one of the top-grossing Facebook games of the year.

EA Playfish's life simulation game has captivated the media with its massive growth, but as the game enters the mature part of its lifespan — where traffic decreases as average revenue per user rises — you can turn your attention to the revenue potential, estimating an annual run rate of at least $82 million to $163 million.

The bullish estimate is based on the game's current demographic spread and monetization activity, EA Playfish's probable expansion plans in the next few quarters, and the overall strength of the Sims franchise brand. This report will explore key factors behind this revenue forecast in greater detail.

Demographics of Sims Social

Tom Mapham, executive producer for The Sims Social, reports that the game's largest player demographic is between 25-35, slightly skewed female. Mapham believes a significant percent of these players were PC or console gamers who became familiar with the Sims franchise in their teens.

Monetization: Revenue Estimates and Virtual Goods in The Sims Social

• - That The Sims Social game generates $1 to $2 in revenue per month per daily user, per month. This is a typical revenue pattern for a well-monetized simulation game, according to Inside Virtual Goods.
• - That EA Playfish can sustain or exceed the game's current levels of engagement for a full year.

What Sells in Sims Social: Categories and Trends

In terms of the particular virtual goods that generate the most revenue in The Sims Social, Playfish's Tom Mapham reports two categories:

• Gameplay or consumable boosts — One-use items that expand or enhance a player's gameplay, like energy refill items.
• Durable virtual goods — Items that are persistent in the game environment beyond a single use.
• Durable virtual goods that enable new gameplay experiences — Building off of the needs-satisfying items described above, this category of virtual good allows the player to engage in different gameplay activities when purchased.

Near-Future Growth Potential for Sims Social

As AppData chart indicates, The Sims Social has recently entered a period of decline across monthly and daily active users as the game transitions into the mature part of its lifespan. (Note that the mid-October sharp drop in MAU reflects a Facebook update to its accounting methods for active users across all apps.)

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